From Chechnya, a cautionary tale

...But scratch the surface, and Chechnya becomes a cautionary tale, particularly for the US odyssey in Iraq, now almost in its seventh year. A deadly insurgency, which the Kremlin has pronounced all but defeated, perseveres in the mountains that have sheltered rebels for centuries, and is spilling out beyond Chechnya's borders into other republics of Russia's North Caucasus.

The circumstances that fuel the insurgency are familiar to American troops and diplomats stationed in Iraq: a weak, nascent kleptocracy; staggering unemployment; revenge that is easily harvested by the enduring Islamic fundamentalism. Unable to keep the rebels in check, the government — with the tacit support of the Kremlin — carries out arbitrary abductions and summary executions.

After Sunday's election in Iraq, top American commanders said the performance of Iraqi security forces demonstrated that the country is on track to the level of stability and peace needed to withdraw American combat troops by Sept. 1. (That at least 38 people were killed in bombings and artillery attacks in Baghdad suggests that the commanders' bar for what is considered stability and peace — or good performance of Iraqi forces — is rather low.) As Washington gears up for the pullout it might serve it well to look at Chechnya as an example of one way violence can continue to bleed a former counterinsurgency battlefield long after the war is officially over.

The back history of the conflict in Chechnya — nearly 300 years of relentless opposition to the oppressive Russian rule — is radically different from that of Iraq. But the efforts by Washington and by the Kremlin to extricate themselves from their respective wars follow an uncomfortably similar pattern: Prop up a relatively amenable government and hand over to it the responsibility to quash rebellion; pour money into reconstruction projects, ignoring the ensuing corruption and graft; tolerate human rights violations in the name of relative political stability; accept occasional flare-ups of an Islamic rebellion; and declare — or, in the case of the United States, strive to declare — the end of major military operations.

In Chechnya, “the model failed,'' according to Sarah Mendelson, director of the Human Rights and Security Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The end of the war here has given way to a smoldering, self-perpetuating conflict that is quietly ravaging the region like an underground peat fire.

A recent CSIS report shows that the number of suicide bombings in the North Caucasus in 2009 nearly quadrupled compared to the previous year. Most of the attacks occurred in Chechnya. Ambushes, shootings, and roadside bombings are also on the increase across the region: last year, more than 900 people were killed here, almost double from the year before.

Of course, bloodshed in Chechnya is less dramatic in scope than the bombings and shootings that are claiming lives today in Iraq. But Chechnya's population is smaller by almost 30 times. And this war is older. Think Iraq 2019...

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