2009 swine flu outbreak

[Note: The SARS outbreak occurred in 2003 precisely when social protest against the impending invasion of Iraq was peaking.

"Within a matter of weeks in early 2003, SARS spread from the Guangdong province of China to rapidly infect individuals in some 37 countries around the world."(Wikipedia)

Demonstrations dwindled after that. Coincidence?]


From Wikipedia :

The 2009 swine flu outbreak is the spread of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus that was first detected by public health agencies in March 2009. Localized outbreaks of influenza-like illness (ILI) were detected in three areas initially in Mexico and soon after in the United States and Canada. Following the discovery of the new strain in the United States, its presence was quickly suspected on most continents, with over 1,600 candidate cases by April 27. Because it is not possible to confirm every one of such cases as being caused by an influenza virus, the World Health Organization (WHO) refers to them collectively as influenza-like illnesses (ILI).


The new strain is derived in part from human influenzavirus A (subtype H1N1), and in part from two strains of swine influenza as well as an avian influenza.[18] In April both the WHO and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) expressed serious concerns about this novel strain, because it apparently transmits from human to human, has had a relatively high mortality rate in Mexico, and because it has the potential to become a flu pandemic.[19]

On April 25, 2009, the WHO determined the situation to be a formal "public health emergency of international concern", with knowledge lacking in regard to "the clinical features, epidemiology, and virology of reported cases and the appropriate responses".[20] Government health agencies around the world also expressed concerns over the outbreak and are monitoring the situation closely.

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Pandemic concern
See also: Pandemic Severity Index

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) are concerned that this outbreak may become a pandemic, for the following reasons.[71]

New strain

The virus is a new strain of influenza, from which human populations have not been vaccinated or naturally immunized.[72]

Human transmission

The virus appeared to infect by human-to-human transmission. Investigations of infected patients indicated no direct contact with swine, such as at a farm or agricultural fair.[35] The strain was later confirmed to have been transmitted between humans.[73] However, at least one other strain of swine flu has previously been transmitted between humans without wider community infection.[74] In contrast, for example, disease transmission in the last severe human outbreak of influenza, the bird flu that peaked in 2006, was determined to be almost entirely from direct contact between humans and birds.[75]

Virulence

The virus has produced severe disease in Mexico, and some deaths. Furthermore, in Mexico (but not in the United States) the illness has primarily struck young, healthy adults, much like the deadly Spanish Flu of 1918. Most other influenza strains produce the worst symptoms in young children, elderly adults, and others with weaker immune systems.[76][35]

Geography

The virus has been detected in multiple areas, indicating that containment is unlikely.[69][36] This is exacerbated by the incubation and infectious periods of influenza.

Lack of data

That other factors are still somewhat unknown, such as transmission rates and patterns and effectiveness of current influenza treatments, combined with the unpredictability of influenza strains, means that reliable forecasts cannot be made.[20]

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