Recent reports that Iran had enough material in its stocks of low-enriched uranium to build a nuclear weapon were premature, but Tehran is nevertheless only months away from that position if it continues to enrich at its 2009 rate, according to an expert analysis released yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 2).
The International Atomic Energy Agency reported in November that Iran had produced 630 kilograms of low-enriched uranium hexafluoride in about 4,000 centrifuges. Some media outlets reported that such a quantity contained enough uranium for a single nuclear weapon (see GSN, Nov. 20), but those accounts failed to understand the amount of uranium in the hexafluoride, says a report by the Institute for Science and International Security.
In fact, the 630 kilograms of uranium hexafluoride, enriched to contain about 4 percent of the key isotope uranium 235, would have about 17 kilograms of the weapon-usable isotope, too little for Iran to fashion into a bomb, the report says.
Still, because Iran should need 20 to 25 kilograms of uranium 235 for a weapon, the nation has made significant progress toward producing that material. Iran has steadfastly denied it has nuclear-weapon ambitions. With its existing facilities, and assuming that new centrifuges begin working soon, Iran should be to produce the remaining 3 to 8 kilograms within a few months, the report says.
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