Thursday, September 25, 2008

Doting over America's decline

If the American news media favors Cassandras, naysayers, and pessimists, then Fareed Zakaria, editor and columnist for Newsweek magazine and irrepressible optimist, is something of an anomaly. But the Indian-born Zakaria, who sits on the boards of both the Council on Foreign Relations and the Trilateral Commission, two of America's most elite and elitist organizations that typically operate at cross-purposes to the interests of ordinary Americans, is also an insider's insider. From his vantage point at the pinnacle of the American establishment, this non-practicing Muslim from Bombay enjoys the privileged perspective of the select few who engineer the world we live in behind the scenes.

This is why Zakaria's newest book, The Post-American World, is essential reading for anyone seeking a true insider's take on where the United States — and the rest of the world — is being led (and misled). Written in Zakaria's typically transparent, fluid prose, and brimming with Big Ideas, The Post-American World serves up a vision of the present and near-future in which America no longer rules the global roost. The present is characterized by what Zakaria calls "the rise of the rest" — the surge into modernity of a host of new powers, from Brazil to India to portions of Sub-Saharan Africa — which is rapidly eating away at America's preeminence. Zakaria points out that a host of superlatives, from the world's tallest building (Dubai) and largest shopping mall (Beijing) to the biggest Ferris wheel (Singapore) and even largest corporation (China), are no longer in the United States. The gap between America and the rest of the world is shrinking rapidly everywhere but in the military sector, exactly as the proponents of globalization have been predicting, enthuses Zakaria. In effect, we are transitioning into a post-American world, in which America no longer enjoys full-spectrum economic, financial, industrial, and cultural dominance over the rest of the world.

Nor, according to Zakaria, is this necessarily a bad thing. For one thing, the rise of the rest does not imply that American vitality is diminishing. The future America of Zakaria's vision is not some enfeebled empire like Rome in its declension or the British Empire in the mid-20th century. Rather, America is destined to prosper far longer than empires past, because of her unparalleled institutions of higher learning, her geographical advantages, and a continued infusion of the best and brightest from all over the world. The British Empire, with whom we are often compared, enjoyed economic supremacy for only a few decades, Zakaria points out, whereas the United States has had the world's largest economy for more than 120 years. Moreover, although Britain's global empire was defended by the mightiest naval force the world had ever seen, her land forces — her armies — were nowhere near as dominant. By contrast, the United States military is dominant on land and sea, in the air and even in outer space. Nor does Zakaria see any likelihood that any other power — not a resurgent Russia, not China — will overtake or surpass the United States militarily anytime soon.

While America has seen some industrial capability migrate overseas, Zakaria acknowledges, she is far ahead of the rest of the world in technological innovation, especially in sectors like nanotechnology that are clearly going to be critical industries in coming decades.

As for the crises of our age, Zakaria points out (correctly) that ours is a far less violent, more secure era than any other in recent history. The world we live in may seem uniquely calamitous, but that is only because of the power of modern news media (cable TV and the Internet, especially) to amplify every tragedy as soon as it occurs, anywhere around the world. Terrorism is an ill, to be sure, but the occasional car bomb or hijacking cannot be compared to the deadly wars and pogroms of the 20th century. The war in Iraq is a fiasco, but it pales beside the horrors of Vietnam and Korea (not to mention the world wars).

In short, Zakaria's prognosis for the near and middle-term future is a litany of almost unalloyed optimism: things are great, and getting even better as the rest of the world takes advantage of the cornucopia that globalism proffers.

And yet, and yet. While the British Empire culturally is akin to our own, a more felicitous comparison (trite though it may seem) would be with Rome which, despite significant differences of its own, resembles the United States of America far more both historically and politically. For Rome, like America (and unlike Great Britain), was not a monarchy but a republic — a label the Romans clung to for centuries after the rise of Caesarism.
 

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