From the WSJ report In Ads, 1 Out of 5 Stats Is Bogus*
*Actually, It's Misleading, Incomplete or Obscured in Fine Print That Few People Read
In making numerical claims asserting superiority over their competitors, marketers court greater scrutiny, as did Coke and Pepsi when each cola maker's ads focused on taste-test results. And some do the bare minimum to avoid litigation. "I won't say they're trying to make honest ads," says Eric Zanot, who teaches advertising at the University of Maryland, "but they're at least trying to make ads that pass the legal test."
Campbell and Progresso traded blows outside the legal arena in a contest over which soup maker uses more monosodium glutamate. Campbell sponsored a study asking consumers to choose a chicken-noodle soup after perusing the ingredient label; two out of three with a preference chose the Campbell variety that lacked MSG. Progresso struck back by sending shoppers to grocery stores and counting 95 different Campbell soups with MSG, a number it touted in an ad.
Campbell spokesman Anthony Sanzio says the number is 87. But the number isn't a fair comparison because Campbell makes about three times more soup than Progresso; Mr. Sanzio says Campbell makes 124 varieties without MSG.
Nutrition experts responded mostly by yawning at a number that, for most people's health, is meaningless. An influential Food and Drug Administration-funded study concluded that MSG has no adverse health effects.
Taking on rivals head-on in such campaigns is being diagnosed as a symptom of an ailing economy by some advertising experts. "When the tide is running out, and there's less business, you have to take it from somewhere else," says Jack Trout, a marketing strategist in Old Greenwich, Conn.
Progresso was taking that approach long before the financial crisis, says vice president of marketing Jerry Lynch. Recently the company trumpeted its taste-test victory in the same chicken-noodle soups whose ingredient labels were perused for Campbell's ads: Seven out of 10 preferred the Progresso variety when they tasted both.
The victory among 70% of opinionated tasters sat somewhat awkwardly between two thirds and three quarters. "Simple numbers are always better -- I can relate to two out of three," says Mr. Lynch. "Three out of four is better -- me and my two brothers like it while my sister didn't. I start having trouble when you say 11 out of 15."
The Domino's ads took a two-out-of-three victory and ran with it. Rick Rosner, a writer for comedian Jimmy Kimmel and someone who is famously smart, is shown playing a board game against a child. Mr. Rosner then claims that his own IQ of 200 represents the people who prefer Domino's while the fifth-grader's IQ of 100 is equivalent to the outnumbered Subway fans. Cue an angry board-clearing by the young Subway stand-in.
The ad has a sub-genius flaw. It suggests that an adult with an IQ of 200 is twice as smart as a fifth-grader with one of 100. But IQ scores are directly comparable only between people of the same age. In its defense, Mr. Rosner points out, "it's a Domino's commercial," and not, say, a scientific paper.
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