'Imagine, U.S. to China in 2015: "Here’s the trillion we owe you. Buy yourself a beer with it." '

Debate over the present downturn mostly looks at cyclical issues and the best way through. Except this time really is different. Underlying structural forces are unresolved and current actions could make matters worse.

Eight structural factors give eight reasons to prepare for a crunch (with the last suggesting 2010):

First: We are off the map. The US Federal Reserve and Treasury, like their counterparts around the world, face unprecedented challenges:

   1. Ensure adequate supply of finances, by countering banks' de-leveraging through monetary policy;
   2. Maintain demand, by countering reduction in consumption through fiscal policy;
   3. Rebuild confidence by absorbing some of the debt problems emerging; and
   4. Coordinate with other nations, as there are strong inter-dependencies.

The unique nature of one strand can be illustrated by the growth in the monetary base recorded by the Federal Reserve. From 1918 to 2008, the curve proceeds on a predictable upward path, with the odd bump, until going ballistic in late 2008. That doesn't mean hyper inflation – the effect is produced by the Fed countering de-leveraging by banks. But it shows the biggest challenge for the Fed in its existence. To quote Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England: “Not since the beginning of the First World War has our banking system been so close to collapse.”

Although sophisticated techniques for economic management are being used, there is no indication that financial leaders have found maps to guide them. Paulson blames a global savings glut – too much money – whilst Bernanke will keep printing more until the economy comes right and Greenspan faults bankers' behaviour (if only Wall Street was far sighted, well informed and well behaved).

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