Revolution in the Rainbow Nation?

On 16 December 2008, disgruntled members of the African National Congress, the party which has guided the most prosperous African nation from apartheid and international isolation to political and economic success, will launch a new political party. The split comes at the end of a very bitter and public feud between former South African President Thabo Mbeki and his rival and likely successor Jacob Zuma. It is the most serious split in the ANC's 96-year history. Certainly, the formation of any party capable of seriously challenging the political hegemony of the ANC and moving South Africa closer to a true multi-party democracy must be welcomed as a very good thing. But is there also a chance that the bad blood between the two factions will spill over into violence during the elections, due in April next year?

In speaking recently with South Africans (both expatriate and local), I found plenty of reasons to be optimistic. However, I also found plenty more reasons why the situation should be watched closely. The world cannot afford to lose South Africa, in the same way it has lost Zimbabwe and as it almost lost Kenya.

REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC

1) A credible opposition is exactly what the ANC and South Africa need:

One big reason to be optimistic is the incredibly positive change a strong opposition could bring about in South Africa. After 14 years of virtually unchallenged rule, the ANC has become corrupt, nepotic and intolerant of opposition. A significant political rival is needed to prevent South Africa from sliding into yet another post-liberation African autocracy. To quote Nobel Peace Prize laureate Archbishop Desmond Tutu, "… democracy flourishes where there is vigorous debate."

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