security
Ronen Bergman
30 Dec 2007
Israel Opinion
Members of the Bhutto family, just like members of the American Kennedy
family and Indian Gandhi family, have a tendency to die in unusual
circumstances. On Thursday it was Benazir Bhutto, who joined her father (who
was executed) and her brothers (who were murdered) following an
assassination coupled with a suicide bombing.
However, Bhutto's assassination, unlike the killing of the Kennedy brothers
and the Gandhi mother and son, constitutes a much greater threat to the
stability of her country and of the entire region. Following the
assassination, Bhutto supporters stormed the streets and blamed emissaries
on behalf of Pakistani leader Pervez Musharraf for the murder.
There is no doubt that Musharraf had something to gain from the demise of
Bhutto, who attempted to stablize the coalition against him (along with
religious parties and with her former nemesis Nawaz Sharef.) However, until
we find out who was responsible for the murder (a difficult task considering
the fact that the assassin apparently made sure to blow himself up in order
to prevent identification,) we cannot rule out other elements as well.
The first such element is the military, which regardless of Musharraf (who
recently stepped down as the army's commander in chief, at least officially)
had reason to fear Bhutto's intentions to undermine it, if and when she
would take power.
The second element is the mighty Pakistani secret service, the ISI. The
service indeed supported Bhutto to some extent during her second term in
office, but it maintained an independent policy and was in the list of
organizations whose power would have been curbed had Bhutto been elected.
The third element is al-Qaeda and groups associated with it, which view the
very possibility of a woman heading a Muslim state as intolerable sacrilege.
In addition, the liberal agenda and pluralism espoused by Bhutto were not to
their liking. In more practical terms, Osama Bin Laden and his close
associates need the ISI's support in order to maintain quiet in the
Waziristan region, where they are staying apparently. Their fear that Bhutto
may wish to boost military activity against them may have led to the
assassination.
On brink of civil war
Whoever the assassin may have been, there is no question this was a colossal
security failure. Bhutto was already a target for assassination immediately
upon her arrival to Pakistan. It is clear that in the wake of such attempt,
security around her should have been at its peak. According to one report,
she was the one who asked to open the armored vehicle she was traveling in,
so that she can come into close contact with her supporters.
The assassination is akin to pouring more oil on the fire of instability in
the country, which has been on the brink of civil war for about six months
now. The collapse of the Pakistani regime could have far-reaching
implications, and not only for Pakistanis. The great fear is that such
collapse could help radical religious movements ascend to power.
Pakistan is known as a country that exported dangerous nuclear know-how to
anyone who wanted it. If Iran is indeed closer to a bomb today than ever
before, this should be credited to the efforts of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, the
father of the Pakistani bomb. Dr. Khan could not have acted without
authorities knowing about it.
The toppling of the Pakistani regime, or a new division of power, may
constitute a direct threat to regional and world peace. The threat is not
only one of nuclear assistance to radical elements, but rather, the loss of
one of the most important elements standing by the West in its war against
global Jihad.
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