Wednesday, October 12, 2011

German Army’s Peak Oil Report Predicts Rising Oil Prices, Another Recession and The Demise of Banks

German Army’s Peak Oil Report Predicts Rising Oil Prices, Another Recession and The Demise of Banks

Written by Post Carbon

Tuesday, 27 September 2011

In the last five or six years at least 20 major studies have been published by governmental and non-governmental organizations that either deal with or touch upon the possibility of severe energy shortages developing in the near future.

Studies done by governmental entities, however, are rare for nearly all of the world's governments still prefer to wait as long as possible before confronting the myriad of problems that will accompany declining oil production. Exceptions to this phenomenon of denial, however, seem to be military organizations that have realistic planning baked into their DNA. All professional military services know that in the last century they have become so dependent on liquid fuels that their effectiveness would be severely degraded should shortages or extremely high oil prices develop.

Last year two military planning organizations went public with studies predicting that serious consequences from oil depletion will befall us shortly. In the U.S. the Joint Forces Command concluded, without saying how they arrived at their dates, that by 2012 surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear and that by 2015 the global shortfall in oil production could be as much as 10 million b/d. Later in the year a draft of a German army study, which went into greater detail in analyzing the consequences of peaking world oil production, was leaked to the press. The German study which was released recently is unique for the frankness with which it explores the dire consequences which may be in store for us.

The Bundeswehr Transformation Center, the organization that prepared the study, starts with the assertion that as there are so many forces in play, it is impossible to determine an exact date for peak oil, but that it will become obvious in hindsight. The Germans also believe that it is already too late to complete a comprehensive global transition to a post fossil fuel economy. They introduce the notion of a peak oil induced economic "tipping point" that would trigger so much economic damage that it is impossible to evaluate the possible outcomes.

For the near future the study foresees that a very large increase in oil prices would harm the energy-intensive agricultural systems that produce much of our food. Not only could the costs of fertilizers and pesticides become prohibitive, but the massive amount of oil-dependent transportation needed to move agricultural products long distances could make food unaffordable for many.

The study goes on to postulate a "mobility crisis" that would arise from substantial increases in the costs of operating private cars and trucks. Although sudden shortages could be relieved by volunteer and regulatory measures, ultimately the mobility crisis would feed into and add to the worsening economic situation.

As oil is used either directly or indirectly in almost 90 percent of industrial production, major increases in the price of oil would change most price relationships. Domestic and foreign trade will have to adapt to these new relationships but doing so will likely lead to economic upheavals. As businesses transform to less oil-dependent forms of services and production, there would likely be an extended period of "transformation unemployment" that will become a major economic problem. A case could be made that our current "jobs" crisis is simply the leading edge of the "transformation unemployment" that could go on for decades.

The German study maintains that all countries on earth will sooner or later be faced with the problem of transitioning to a post-fossil fuel age. As such a transition has never happened before, there are no guidelines for how it is to be accomplished. Of great significance is the willingness of nations to implement the economic policies necessary to effect the transformation to the post fossil fuel age. Forms of government will be sorely tested. The Germans who have much experience in these matters note that only continuous improvement in individual living conditions forms the basis for tolerant and open societies.

Given the widespread unemployment and high mobility costs that are almost certain to accompany the transition to a post fossil fuel world, democratic forms of government are likely to face severe challenges. We all remember the Weimar Republic. Also of note are recent studies within the OECD that show that voting for extremist and nationalist political parties tends to increase with economic setbacks.

For the immediate future, however, the German Army study foresees: 1. increasing oil prices that will reduce consumption and economic output (i.e. a recession or worse); 2. increasing transportation costs that will lead to lower trade volumes - less income for many and unaffordable food for some; and 3. pressure on government budgets as they must keep populations fed, deal with the social consequences of mass unemployment, and attempt to invest in sustainable sources of energy. Governmental revenues are bound to fall as unemployment increases along with resistance to further taxation.

In the medium term, most companies would come to realize that the global economy is going to be shrinking for a long time and act accordingly. In an indefinitely shrinking economy, savings would not be invested as profits could no longer be made or borrowing costs paid. In this environment, the banking system, stock exchanges and financial markets would have a hard time surviving.

Banks would be left with no reason to exist as they would not be able to pay interest on deposits or find credit-worthy companies or individuals. The final step would be the loss of confidence in currencies and with them the ability to carry on normal economic transactions outside of barter.

If all this sounds extreme to American ears, remember the Germans have been through far more than we have in the last century. What is interesting is the way they are telling it like they see it - no pulling of punches here.

By. Tom Whipple

Source: Post Carbon


#HowToCamp #HowToOccupy


Occupy Wall Street and the History of Corporate Fascism

The movement sweeping America is our link to a world-wide chain of rebellion. The majority of the world’s population, which for half a century has borne the brunt of neoliberal policies, is finally determined to stop the onslaught of global capitalism, which is the force sustaining most brutal systems on the planet, from the military dictatorships in the Middle East to the neo-feudalist societies now permeating industrial nations.


Government Aims to Build a ‘Data Eye in the Sky’

More than 60 years ago, in his “Foundation” series, the science fiction novelist Isaac Asimov invented a new science — psychohistory — that combined mathematics and psychology to predict the future.
Now social scientists are trying to mine the vast resources of the Internet — Web searches and Twitter messages, Facebook and blog posts, the digital location trails generated by billions of cellphones — to do the same thing.


The beauty of revolution – Steve Biko lives!

Two interesing and not unrelated blog posts to mark the 34th anniversary of Steve Biko‘ death. In the first Khadija Patel interviews Andile Mngxitama, South African Black consciousness activists and co-editor of “Biko Lives!” – the mistake is to have believed he died on that day 34 years ago.


All the Single Ladies

Recent years have seen an explosion of male joblessness and a steep decline in men’s life prospects that have disrupted the “romantic market” in ways that narrow a marriage-minded woman’s options: increasingly, her choice is between deadbeats (whose numbers are rising) and playboys (whose power is growing). But this strange state of affairs also presents an opportunity: as the economy evolves, it’s time to embrace new ideas about romance and family—and to acknowledge the end of “traditional” marriage as society’s highest ideal.


Remembering the Mahatma

October 2 marked the 142nd birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi.
In the enthusiasm to dwell on Gandhi's superhuman sagacity, we often fail to appreciate his more human virtues. His immaculate sincerity. His incredible tolerance, his modest charm. His infinite patience. And, above all, his abiding faith in Truth and non-violence.


Coptic Egyptians pray for end to bloody clashes

The prayers of Rev. Joseph Guardious, a Coptic priest, for an end to attacks against Christians and their churches were answered Sunday evening with a fresh explosion of religious terror - one which left 24 dead and scores injured in the Egyptian capital.


New leftists salute Wall Street brethren

HONG KONG - As the Occupy Wall Street protests targeting corporate greed and political corruption spread from coast to coast in the United States, China's new leftists - socialist critics of the country's capitalist-style economic reforms - are beginning to lend support, declaring the demonstrations as a "great revolution" that sounds the death-knell for capitalism throughout the world.
Supporters of the new leftists have staged street protests in at least two cities of Henan province, Luoyang and Zhengzhou, in the past few days to show their "firm support" for the "Great Wall Street Revolution".


A changed world is emerging

Globally the political economic structure as the world has known it over the last four decades or so seems not only set for fundamental restructuring, but the process has already started. What in immediate recent history came to be known as the Arab Spring is starting the shape-up to a winter of discontent for the developed world and with even echoes in planned actions of South Africa’s ANC Youth League.


"Occupy Wall Street Is A Thought Revolution - And It Won't Be Minimized" - MOC#83


There's no getting around it - Occupy Wall Street is a thought revolution for the United States. It's our Mental Spring. The flood gates are open and they're not closing.


Why prisons and prisoners must matter to the Occupy movement

Prisons and the millions who are imprisoned are a critical issue in this society for the 1 percent and for the 99 percent. They must be a vital area of concern for the Occupy Wall Street movement and especially here in Occupy LA.


#OccupyWallStreet comes to Denmark

“Our movement is growing and now it’s too big to ignore,” Vogter said. “The press has finally realised this isn’t just a group of unwashed hippies.”


FlashMob Peace Meditation, NYC 2011

FlashMob Peace Meditation, NYC 2011 from Ulti Maya on Vimeo.

beauty
the future


Oswald was trying to prevent JFK’s assassination says Judyth Vary Baker

TORONTO -- Judyth Vary Baker; author of ME & LEE: How I came to know, love and lose Lee Harvey Oswald, a 600-page non-fiction autobiography which recounts the undercover medical project they worked on together and the secrets he shared with her about JFK’s impending assassination.


Occupy Seattle Protesters Sit Down In The Middle Of Busy Down Town Street


October 08, 2011 KONG TV News


Iceland's On-going Revolution

An Italian radio program's story about Iceland’s on-going revolution is a stunning example of how little our media tells us about the rest of the world. Americans may remember that at the start of the 2008 financial crisis, Iceland literally went bankrupt. The reasons were mentioned only in passing, and since then, this little-known member of the European Union fell back into oblivion.


Afghan woman Suraia Sahar speaks in front of White House on 10 year anniversary of Afghanistan war


AFP member Suraia Sahar travels from Toronto to Washington DC on 10 year anniversary to call for an end to the war in Afghanistan.


Speak Out! - "Truth Is" by Black Ice


Black Ice w/ another great performance on Def Poetry Jam. Original upload by SpokenPoetryTV.


Libyan revolutionaries used dating website to dodge Khadafy's secret police

Mahmoudi -- leader of the Ekhtalef, or "Difference," movement -- acted as if he was looking for a wife under the profile name "Where is Miriam?" and sent coded love letters to spur people to revolution.


Wall St protests spread south

The anti-Wall Street protest that began in New York last month will spread to Melbourne this week, local organisers say.


Los Indignados: Operation Occupy Brussels

Los Indignados: Operation Occupy Brussels from NOMAD 07 Creative Bohemians on Vimeo.


#OCCUPYEUROPE
#OCCUPYBRUSSELS


OCCUPY DC - OCTOBER 9th, 2011

OCCUPY DC - OCTOBER 9th, 2011 from Gabe Dinsmoor on Vimeo.




IMF advisor says we face a Worldwide Banking Meltdown


Dr. Robert Shapiro who advised Presidents Clinton and Obama and who currently advises the IMF predicts a cascading meltdown of the World's banking system starting with Sovereign debt in the Eurozone, affecting the UK then finally bringing down the global banking system.


A History of Violence - Edge Master Class 2011 - Steven Pinker [9.27.11]

What may be the most important thing that has ever happened in human history is that violence has gone down, by dramatic degrees, and in many dimensions all over the world and in many spheres of behavior: genocide, war, human sacrifice, torture, slavery, and the treatment of racial minorities, women, children, and animals.
The clip was aired October 5, 2011 on the popular News show Newsnight with the corporation's top interviewer Jeremy Paxman.


Is the world too big to fail?

Noam Chomsky explains how the global order of power has been created and describes the mechanisms behind its continuity.


Google Hands Wikileaks Volunteer's Gmail Data to U.S. Government

Gmail users got a hefty dose of reality today when it was revealed that Google handed over one user's private data to the U.S. government, who requested it without a search warrant.


Occupy Wall Street Protesters Plan March on Mansions

Occupy Wall Street is moving on up to the East Side — literally, with a coalition of activist groups is marching on the homes of some of New York City’s richest residents tomorrow.The “Millionaire’s March” was organized by three of the groups that helped plan last Wednesday’s Occupy Wall Street megamarch; UnitedNY, the Strong Economy for All Coalition, the Working Families Party, and New York Communities for Change. It will include stops at the h
omes of News Corporation Chairman and CEO Rupert Murdoch, energy executive and conservative activist David Koch, real estate developer Howard Millstein, hedge fund manager John Paulson and JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon.

Psychopaths develop technology to detect angry normals

From the truthjihad.com blog:

A cabal of psychopaths that rules the former USA has developed a new tool to detect and neutralize non-psychopaths who threaten their power. That, at least, is the implication of a recently-uncovered Department of Homeland Security document revealing the existence of Future Attribute Screening Technology (FAST) - a "pre-crime" detection unit not unlike the one dystopian novelist Philip K. Dick dreamed up for "Minority Report," which inspired the Tom Cruise film. And by way of homage to another great dystopian writer, George Orwell, FAST will red-flag individuals harboring what the ruling psychopaths call "malintent."


As DailyTech.com reports:


This new "pre-crime" detection facility was discovered via a June 2010 DHS document that was acquired by the Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC). The document states that information is currently collected and retained on "members of the public" as part of the pre-crime system, which is called Future Attribute Screening Technology (FAST).


FAST is made up of algorithms that use factors including gender, age, ethnicity, heart rate, body movements, occupation, voice pitch changes, body heat fluctuations and breathing patterns to identify clues as to whether the individual(s) will commit a crime in the future.


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more... ~


Occupy Wall Street: The Most Important Thing in the World Now

I was honored to be invited to speak at Occupy Wall Street on Thursday night. Since amplification is (disgracefully) banned, and everything I say will have to be repeated by hundreds of people so others can hear (a k a “the human microphone”), what I actually say at Liberty Plaza will have to be very short. With that in mind, here is the longer, uncut version of the speech.


OccupyWallStreet Day18 Mike Myers (Austin Powers) Supports US!!


Join Us in Solidarity! www.facebook.com/OccupyCanada
Revolution 2.0 always starts on the internet. It will be tweeted, facebooked, YouTubed liked and shared. If your government shuts down the internet. Shut down your government.

There is no time left to be complacent. The world is changing now. Not tomorrow. Be part of the change for good. Embrace The love. Not the fear. Let go your attachment to the old world and embrace the new.


BE THE CHANGE YOU WANT TO SEE - Join Occupy WallStreet

http://www.facebook.com/OccupyWallSt

"Before this victory is won, some will have to get thrown in jail some more, but we shall overcome. Don't worry about us before the victory is won, some of us will lose jobs, but we shall overcome. Before the victory is won, some will be misunderstood and called bad names and dismissed as rebel-rousers and agitators But we shall overcome.


And I'll tell you why.

We shall overcome because the arch of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice." - Martin Luther King

Day 18 of Occupy Wall Street. On October 5, joined by union members, students, and the unemployed, the demonstration swelled to the largest yet with an estimated 5,000 marchers joining the protest.


Source/Credit/Mirror "OurLocalLife"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5DfQXNd01w&sns=fb


Riot Police Attack Athens Protesters

Η καταστολή της απεργίας 5-10-2011 from dimitris meletis on Vimeo.


And Greece's Riot Dog is everywhere.


Study: Wealthy Stockbrokers More Dangerous Than Psychopaths
The findings are a reminder of why now -- more than ever -- we must refuse to succumb to political apathy and laissez-faire demagoguery.


'Occupy Wall Street' prompts Australian echo

Could this be the latest US fad to catch on in Australia?
Earlier this month, New York police arrested hundreds of demonstrators attempting to occupy Wall Street in a so-called anti-greed protest.
Activists on this side of the Pacific are now preparing to rally later this month, with at least one protest planned for Melbourne's City Square on October 15. Other groups met on the weekend to plan similar activities in Sydney's Martin Place - home to the Reserve Bank and other financial institutions.


God's soldiers: Pakistan army's ideology

Little-studied internal Pakistan army debates help understand just what the institution wants for itself and for the country it rules.
[Note: Indian slant]


We Are the 99 Percent
- amazing photos


Bill Hicks - It's Just A Ride


The World is like a ride in an amusement park, and when you choose to go on it you think it's real, because that's how powerful our minds are. And the ride goes up and down and round and round, and it has thrills and chills and is very brightly colored, and it's very loud. And it's fun, for a while.

Some people have been on the ride for a long time, and they've begun to question, 'Is this real, or is this just a ride?', and other people have remembered, and they've come back to us and they say 'Hey, don't worry. Don't be afraid, ever, because this is just a ride.' and we KILL THOSE PEOPLE.


"Shut him up! We have alot invested in this ride! SHUT HIM UP! Look at my furrows of worry. Look at my big bank account, and my family. This just has to be real."


It's just a ride.


But we always kill those good guys who try and tell us that. You ever noticed that? And let the demons run amok. But it doesn't matter, because ... It's just a ride.


And we can change it anytime we want. It's only a choice. No effort, no work, no job, no savings of money. A choice, right now, between fear and love. The eyes of fear wants you to put bigger locks on your door, buy guns, close yourself off. The eyes of love, instead see all of us as one.


Here's what we can do to change the world right now, to a better ride:


Take all that money we spent on weapons and defense each year and instead spend it feeding, clothing, and educating the poor of the world, which it would many times over, not one human being excluded, and WE CAN EXPLORE SPACE, TOGETHER, BOTH INNER AND OUTER, forever ... in peace.


-- Bill Hicks (1961 - 1994)



War on Whistleblowers - Sibel Edmonds on GRTV


This week GRTV talks to Sibel Edmonds, famed FBI whistleblower and the Editor of BoilingFrogsPost.com about the various ways that whistleblowers in the national security establishment are retaliated against, set upon by the establishment, and undermined by the very foundation-funded organizations that are supposed to be helping them.


Bilderberg 2011: The curtains are drawn

Charlie Skelton wakes to find a security fence blocking his view of the venue, and brings news of the Bilderbus


The Battle Over Zomia

"It is a necessary corrective to the predominantly benign view of state-building," she says. Scott's book demonstrates that "the state itself can be harmful and despotic."


Facebook and Google / Secret Revealed


http://www.ted.com


A High-Tech War Against Slights to a Centuries-Old Monarchy

BANGKOK — Down a maze of neon-lit corridors in a massive government complex here is a windowless room where computer technicians scour the Internet for photos, articles, Facebook postings — anything that might be deemed offensive to King Bhumibol Adulyadej and his family.


THE CIA: Mind-Bending Disclosures

The agency's search for the secret of brainwashing


To the Devil

The Devil's Dictionary at 100.


Marshall McLuhan: The World is Show Business


"You can't have a point of view in the Electronic Age" ~ McLuhan


New pursuit of Schrödinger’s cat

Quantum theory is reliable but fraught with paradox. Philip Ball asks if scientists will now find an object existing in two places at once


Fukushima Nuclear Plant Worker Dies

A worker hired to help bring the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant under control died suddenly, the third fatality reported among workers at the stricken plant since the March accident, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.


The Next Step: Occupy Wal-Mart

Occupy Wall Street exceeds anything that either of the two big business political parties can contain or accurately represent. Contrary to the fantasies of some pundits, the movement was not initiated by Democratic operatives nor funded by George Soros. Nor, apparently, does it seek to be absorbed or strictly represented by a Democratic Party platform. That is, Occupy Wall Street is precisely not the 'left' version of the Tea Party.


Philosophical counselors rely on eternal wisdom of great thinkers

Patricia Anne Murphy is a philosopher with a real-world mission.
Murphy may have a PhD and an intimate knowledge of Aristotle and Descartes, but in her snug Takoma Park bungalow, she’s helping a broken-hearted patient struggle through a divorce.

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image from http://www.spitting-image.net

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