Reporting from Islamabad, Pakistan, and New Delhi -- Hostility between India and Pakistan is at its worst in years, but tensions stemming from last week's terrorist attacks in Mumbai are unlikely to bloom into full-blown war between the nuclear-armed rivals -- at least for now, according to analysts on both sides of the border.
Indian authorities say that the gunmen who rampaged through luxury hotels and other crowded sites in Mumbai, leaving more than 170 people dead, were trained and guided by the Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba. New Delhi has angrily demanded that Islamabad turn over leaders of Lashkar and officials have pointedly refused to rule out military action, warning that they reserved the right to protect Indian territory "with all the means at our disposal."
Indian authorities say that the gunmen who rampaged through luxury hotels and other crowded sites in Mumbai, leaving more than 170 people dead, were trained and guided by the Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba. New Delhi has angrily demanded that Islamabad turn over leaders of Lashkar and officials have pointedly refused to rule out military action, warning that they reserved the right to protect Indian territory "with all the means at our disposal."
But a combination of new political and economic realities, U.S. pressure and perhaps some lessons learned in the past have inhibited a rush to open conflict.
Any war would be financially devastating, especially at a time of worldwide economic downturn. India's economic juggernaut has lost some steam; and even more dire, Pakistan has had to appeal to the International Monetary Fund to keep its economy afloat. Foreign investment in both countries, which fled during a 2001-02 standoff, would vanish once again in the event of an armed clash.
"No one can afford it," said Abhay Matkar, a former Indian army major in Mumbai. "Both countries are not ready for war, and it will not happen."
Any war would be financially devastating, especially at a time of worldwide economic downturn. India's economic juggernaut has lost some steam; and even more dire, Pakistan has had to appeal to the International Monetary Fund to keep its economy afloat. Foreign investment in both countries, which fled during a 2001-02 standoff, would vanish once again in the event of an armed clash.
"No one can afford it," said Abhay Matkar, a former Indian army major in Mumbai. "Both countries are not ready for war, and it will not happen."
Ayesha Tammy Haq, a popular talk-show host in Pakistan, questioned whether Pakistan's armed forces were even prepared militarily for a war, conventional or otherwise.
"We've had decades of propaganda about how strong we are, but we can't win a war," Haq said. "We have an army that's fat, not a well-oiled fighting machine."
Another factor leading to the relatively restrained response may be the lessons learned from a somewhat similar attack seven years ago this month -- an incident that some say almost led both countries to press the nuclear button.
On Dec. 13, 2001, a group of gunmen stormed the Indian Parliament complex in New Delhi and came close to killing the high-ranking lawmakers inside. When the gun battle was over, a dozen people lay dead, including the five assailants and six security personnel.
India also blamed that attack on Pakistani Islamic extremists, allegedly abetted by their country's powerful intelligence agency. Within days, India lashed back by deploying the first of hundreds of thousands of troops along its border with Pakistan, which promptly followed suit.
The military standoff lasted for months before intense international diplomacy helped dissuade the archrivals from launching their fourth war in 55 years.
"We've had decades of propaganda about how strong we are, but we can't win a war," Haq said. "We have an army that's fat, not a well-oiled fighting machine."
Another factor leading to the relatively restrained response may be the lessons learned from a somewhat similar attack seven years ago this month -- an incident that some say almost led both countries to press the nuclear button.
On Dec. 13, 2001, a group of gunmen stormed the Indian Parliament complex in New Delhi and came close to killing the high-ranking lawmakers inside. When the gun battle was over, a dozen people lay dead, including the five assailants and six security personnel.
India also blamed that attack on Pakistani Islamic extremists, allegedly abetted by their country's powerful intelligence agency. Within days, India lashed back by deploying the first of hundreds of thousands of troops along its border with Pakistan, which promptly followed suit.
The military standoff lasted for months before intense international diplomacy helped dissuade the archrivals from launching their fourth war in 55 years.
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